While in London recently at an exchange with British Academy President Lord Nicholas Stern, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen really let the cat out of the bag.
She told Stern that banks are now "very much stronger," with another financial crisis like the one in 2008 unlikely to happen anytime soon, and not likely "in our lifetime."
According to Yellen, the Fed has "learned" from the Great Recession of 2008 and is now more watchful over underlying risks in the financial system. She's comfortable saying, "I think the system is much safer and much sounder."
Well, isn't that reassuring...
Really, it's just more of the hubris that got us into the last financial crisis - the one that dragged the global economy to the edge of a precipice and vaporized trillions in wealth. I'm sure you remember it well, even if Yellen seems a little foggy on the details.
On the one hand, central banks periodically warn us against overpriced assets, interest rates at or near extreme lows, and excessive borrowing.
And on the other hand, it's their freewheeling, easy-money policies, ostensibly put in place to stimulate the post-crisis economy, that have just coaxed global debt levels to new records.
That, in my view, has only pushed us further along toward the next crisis. With debt completely out of control all over the world, it won't take much to tip the cart over.
Student debt, subprime auto loans, credit cards, name it: Any one of a number of debt bubbles could be the last straw.
That's why I think my recommendation today is going to knock it out of the park...
Tags:market crash
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